China v Japan Preview: China’s Last Real Chance Meets the Team Nobody Wants to Play

China have scored five goals at this tournament. Three of them came in 12 wild minutes on day one, and since then it’s been nothing but damage.

On Wednesday they run into Japan. That’s not the fixture you pick when you need a lifeline.

How China got here

Let’s be fair first. For 25 minutes against Pakistan, China were the story of the tournament. Liang Haolin scored twice in three minutes, Wang Yubo added a penalty corner, and Pakistan were 3-1 down and rattled.

Then it collapsed. Pakistan scored six second-half goals and won 8-3. On Sunday, Malaysia shut China out 3-0, Liang didn’t score at all, and China finished the weekend pointless, with eleven conceded in two games.

Tuesday made it worse. China scored in the first minute against Canada, Li Kai from a corner, and still lost 3-2. Three games, no points, fourteen conceded.

So the pattern’s clear. China can hurt you in a burst. They can’t yet stop anyone hurting them back, and 60 minutes is a long time to hide a defence that leaks like this.

Japan don’t do bursts. They do floods

Japan’s first game was the 8-1 hammering of Canada on day one, and the scary part wasn’t the score. It was the spread. Eight goals, eight different scorers, five of them before half-time. Hanayama, Higuchi, Yamada, Ninomiya, Furusawa, then Sasaki, Mori and Shinohara late on.

There’s no one player to mark out of that. Stop one runner and the next one arrives.

But Tuesday was a warning. Japan led Malaysia twice and still lost 4-2, conceding three times in the last ten minutes (you can read the full Day 3 round-up for that finish). Japan are still the most complete side in Johor Bahru on day-one evidence, but they’re not untouchable any more.

What’s actually at stake

Only the top four in this five-team group get a match on finals day, Saturday 24 October. Fifth place goes home early.

China are bottom, on zero points from three, and they can’t afford a fourth straight defeat. Lose this and they’re relying on maths and favours. Japan, meanwhile, are chasing top spot and the easier route through the final, and they won’t take their foot off a game like this.

Our take

Hard to look past Japan, and honestly it isn’t close on form. China’s only real hope is the thing they did to Pakistan: start fast, score first, and make Japan chase a game for once. If Japan score early, though, this could get ugly in a hurry. China’s defence hasn’t shown it can survive a side that attacks in waves, and nobody at Taman Daya attacks in waves like Japan.

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